The latest research into our international markets and how COVID-19 is impacting plans to visit Scotland
Explore below feedback from our international marketing teams and insight from the latest social listening.
In this section:
Market intelligence update: Europe
Social listening update: Europe
Market intelligence update: Australia, Canada, China and USA
Market intelligence update: Europe
The latest marketing insights from Europe gathered by our VisitScotland marketing teams.
Domestic travel and cross-border movement within Europe is underway. With UK quarantine restrictions being lifted, more and more air and ferry routes are returning, and leisure tours are confirmed. An increased number of cases in various locations around Europe means those countries that are exempt from quarantine is changing frequently.
Since October 30, France is in a partial national lockdown. Due to a rise in new infections, the Scottish government re-imposed quarantine requirements for returning UK residents and visitors from France.
Health and recovery of market
French authorities are closely monitoring levels of new infection rates. An increased number of cases is being observed in France and has led to a new national lockdown from 30 October. Apart from nightly curfews that had been previously introduced, residents are now advised to leave their homes only for essential purposes. Restaurants, bars and recreational centres are now closed. Some schools and essential shops remain open. These restrictions will be in place until 1 December.
On 16 October the French government had restored the state of health emergency throughout France to give a "clear and solid legal basis" to the measures taken to contain the spread of new infections.
Quarantine and other travel restrictions
Since 15 August, France has been taken off the list of quarantine-exempt countries, meaning returning residents and visitors from France are now having to quarantine when entering the UK. Check the full list of countries who can travel to Scotland without quarantine.
Aviation
Airline carriers have reduced their operations between Scotland and France for the winter season. Please note that airline schedules remain subject to change and amendments. For an overview of European airline carriers with direct routes into Scotland, please refer to our overseas travel pages. We advise visitors to check latest connectivity, air fares and latest safety measures directly with the airlines.
Ferry operations are still ongoing, giving French visitors the option of travelling to Scotland via seaports in France and South England with Brittany Ferries or the Netherlands and North England with DFDS Seaways or P&O Ferries, albeit having to enter quarantine upon arrival in the UK.
Intermediary insights and horizon scanning
Enquiries from French tour operators are largely focusing around Scotland’s industry re-opening and health and safety measures – and around when quarantine restrictions are likely to be lifted again.
Some 2021 winter programmes might resume if quarantine restrictions have been lifted, flight routes have been reinstated and France’s national lockdown has been loosened. Tour operators are looking at 2021 for recovery, either reducing or reinventing their offering.
Focus in 2021 will also be on customers who were issued a credit note/travel voucher as a result of their trip being cancelled in 2020.
IFTM TopRésa, France’s prime travel trade show, after being postponed to November 2020 has now officially been cancelled in 2020 and postponed to October 2021.
For more insights into the French market see our visitors from France page.
Since 2 November, Germany is in a partial national lockdown. Due to the rise in new infections in Germany, German holidaymakers are no longer permitted to travel domestically. International travel remains permitted, with appropriate travel warnings in place. Visitors from Germany are required to self-isolate upon arrival in the UK.
Health and recovery of market
German authorities are closely monitoring the country’s R rate, which since the start of October has continuously exceeded one. Since 2 November, Germany is again in partial national lockdown, with new restrictions on household gatherings and maximum group sizes in place. Restaurants, bars and recreational centres are now closed. Schools and shops remain open.
While these restrictions will be in place for one month, state and federal leaders will re-assess the situation later in the month to decide whether measures need to be tightened or can be loosened in December.
Quarantine and other travel restrictions
Returning residents and visitors from Germany, Austria, Switzerland and Liechtenstein are required to self-isolate when entering the UK. Check the full list of countries who can travel to Scotland without quarantine.
From 1 October, the German Foreign Office has moved away from general advice against non-essential travel to specific travel advice per country, thereby also including regions and countries at risk across the European Union and European Economic Area. Most EU countries, including parts of Germany itself, have since been classed as full or partial risk areas. The UK is classed as a full risk area, the only exceptions being the Isle of Man, Guernsey and Jersey.
From 8 November, returnees from abroad who have been in a risk area are obliged to self-isolate for at least five days before being able to take a COVID-19 test and leave quarantine (following a negative result).
Aviation
Airline carriers have reduced their operations between Scotland and Germany for the winter season. Please note that airline schedules remain subject to change and amendments. For an overview of European airline carriers with direct routes into Scotland, please refer to our overseas travel pages. We advise visitors to check latest connectivity, air fares and latest safety measures directly with the airlines.
Ferry operations are still ongoing, giving German visitors the option of travelling to Scotland via seaports in the Netherlands and North England with DFDS Seaways or P&O Ferries, albeit having to enter quarantine upon arrival in the UK.
Intermediary insights and horizon scanning
Enquiries from German tour operators are largely focusing on Scotland’s industry re-opening and health and safety measures, as well as the when quarantine measures are likely to be lifted.
Some 2021 winter programmes might resume if quarantine restrictions have been lifted, flight routes have been reinstated and Germany’s national lockdown has been loosened.
For more insights into the German market see our visitors from Germany page.
Due to a rise in new infections, the Scottish Government re-imposed quarantine requirements for returning UK residents and visitors from Luxembourg, Belgium, the Netherlands, Iceland, Poland, Denmark and Sweden. Currently, only visitors from Norway and Finland are permitted to enter the UK without having to quarantine, however, they will have to self-isolate upon return to their home countries.
Health and recovery of market
Authorities in the Benelux and Nordic countries are closely monitoring levels of new infection rates. All North European countries are managing their lockdown separately and are easing restrictions at different paces. Across most of the North European markets, hospitality, cultural attractions, workplaces and schools have largely reopened.
In recent weeks Luxembourg, Belgium and the Netherlands have seen a rise in new infections, which led the Scottish government to re-impose quarantine requirements for returning residents and visitors from the Benelux countries. The same also applies to Iceland, Poland, Sweden and Denmark.
Belgium has re-imposed a partial national lockdown from 2 November. Apart from nightly curfews that had previously been implemented, non-essential shops are now closed and new restrictions on household gatherings have been introduced. These restrictions will be reviewed on 1 December.
Quarantine and other travel restrictions
Visitors from Norway and Finland are not required to self-isolate upon arrival in the UK. However, Luxembourg, Belgium, the Netherlands, Iceland, Poland, Sweden and Denmark have been taken off the list of quarantine-exempt countries, meaning returning residents and visitors from these countries are having to quarantine when entering the UK. Check the full list of countries who can travel to Scotland without quarantine.
Aviation
Airline carriers have reduced their operations between Scotland and North Europe for the winter season. Please note that airline schedules remain subject to change and amendments. For an overview of European airline carriers with direct routes into Scotland, please refer to our overseas travel pages. We advise visitors to check latest connectivity, air fares and latest safety measures directly with the airlines.
Ferry operations are still ongoing, giving visitors from the Benelux countries the option of travelling to Scotland via seaports in the Netherlands and North England with DFDS Seaways or P&O Ferries. Returning UK residents and visitors from the Benelux and others who use the Dutch and Belgian ferry routes as transit route will need to self-isolate for 14 days upon arrival.
Intermediary insights and horizon scanning
Enquiries from North European tour operators are largely focusing around Scotland’s industry re-opening and health and safety measures.
It is possible that some tours scheduled for the winter will still go ahead, under the premise of them not yet having been cancelled or postponed, and booked accommodations and attractions being open. However, due to quarantine re-imposed for Benelux countries and Nordic countries being extremely cautious, more and more tour operators can be seen cancelling their tours to Scotland for the remainder of this year and their focus has shifted to the 2021 season.
For more insights on the Netherlands, Norways and Sweden see our country specific pages:
Due to a rise in new infections, domestic travel within individual countries and cross-border movement within Europe has been compromised for many Southern European markets. The Scottish Government recently re-imposed quarantine requirements for returning UK residents and visitors from Italy and Greece.
Health and recovery of market
Authorities in Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece are closely monitoring levels of new infection rates. All South European countries are managing their lockdown separately, even region by region within each country, imposing local or regional restrictions when deemed necessary.
Across South European markets, hospitality, cultural attractions, workplaces and schools have reopened, but Spain and Italy are having to contain growing local outbreaks and partial lockdowns in addition to imposing opening restrictions of hospitality businesses in certain regions to break the chain of new infections.
Quarantine and other travel restrictions
Returning UK residents and visitors from Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece must self-isolate for 14 days upon arrival in Scotland. Visitors and returning UK residents from the Canary Islands are exempt from quarantine. Check the full list of countries who can travel to Scotland without quarantine.
Aviation
Airlines have paused their flights between Scotland and mainland Spain and most of the flights to Italy, although they restarted routes between the Canary Islands and Scotland. For an overview of European airline carriers with direct routes into Scotland, please refer to our overseas travel pages. We advise visitors to check latest connectivity, air fares and latest safety measures directly with the airlines.
Intermediary insights and horizon scanning
Italian tour operators who still had tours scheduled in the last trimester were forced to reschedule them to 2021 due to quarantine restrictions for incoming visitors as well as flight and hotel cancellations. Tour operators are now focusing on 2021 tours for small groups with specialized themes such as whisky or walking.
Fitur, Spain’s leading travel trade fair and one of the largest business and consumer shows in the world, has been postponed to May 2021.
For more insights on Spain and Italy see our country specific pages:
Social listening update: Europe
Our insights team uses 'social listening' as a tool for research. Put simply, it's about gathering data on specific topics from online conversations, to allow us to capture first-hand insights from visitors and potential visitors to Scotland.
We use a social listening tool, Brandwatch, to identify, capture and categorise high volumes of information.
Between 17 and 30 August 2020, we identified over 4,800 conversations related to holiday intention from the French market. Online chatter has decreased by 14% compared to the previous two weeks. This might be a reflection of the end of the summer season in France as people shift their attention from holiday planning to other subjects, such as the return to school / work.
Conversations about holiday intention focus on overnight stays, autumn breaks and users planning their next holidays.
Online sentiment is positive (64%) with users sharing their holiday experiences. There is a small percentage of negative chatter mostly driven by complaints about poor holiday experiences and cancelations.
Most online conversations take place on social media sites (71% on Instagram and 23% on Twitter) where online users discuss the end of their summer holidays and hopes for their next holidays.
Mentions included reviews being left on websites like TripAdvisor and Booking.com, with comments on recent experiences from holidays spent in France.
Between 17and 30 August 2020, we identified almost 2,000 conversations related to holiday intention from the German market. Online chatter decreased by 7% during this period compared to the previous two weeks. This might be influenced by the end of the summer season as people shift their attention from holiday planning to other subjects as well as an increase in concerns about the rise in cases in other countries and a potential second wave.
The main topic themes were people:
- Sharing recent or current holiday experiences (mostly at home).
- Users planning a holiday abroad for 2021.
- Frustration over newly issued travel warnings for popular destinations (e.g. Paris and Mallorca).
- Complaints over last minute cancellations of trips / hotel bookings due to the rise in COVID-19 cases in several countries.
Online sentiment around holiday intention tends to negative (37% of total online chatter). Negative chatter is driven by user’s concerns about future trips and their frustrations over travel cancellations due to the rise in COVID-19 cases and newly issued travel warnings for several countries. Positive sentiment is driven by online users sharing recent or current holiday experiences.
Most online conversations took place on Twitter (46%) and forums (40%). Reklamieren24.de is the most popular forum where users share their experiences, complaints and seek / provide advice on travel related topics. Twitter is used as a site for debate where users discuss their views on the current situation and share holiday plans and frustrations.
Dutch speaking countries: The Netherlands and Belgium
Between 17 and 30 August 2020, we identified almost 1,000 related mentions about holiday intentions in the low countries. Online chatter has decreased by 13% compared to the previous two weeks.
The main topic themes are chatter about travel corridors recently close and questions about cancelled flights due to this reason. Also conversations about a holiday abroad.
Online sentiment around holiday intention is neutral (45% of total conversations) to positive. Neutral sentiment is driven by users reflecting on the increasing number of travel corridors close due to COVID-19. Positive chatter is driven by online users sharing their recent / current holiday experiences. Negative conversations are driven by concern and confusion about whether their planned holidays will go ahead or will be cancelled due to COVID-19.
Most of conversations take place on Twitter (61%) and online forums (27%) where online users share their thoughts and opinions, sharing their experience of their recent domestic holidays.
Market intelligence update: Australia, Canada, China and USA
The latest marketing insights from Australia, Canada, China and the USA gathered from our VisitScotland marketing teams.
Australia is included in the Government air bridge list and it is now possible to travel to Scotland from the UAE and Qatar without having to quarantine on arrival making this route into the UK from Australia or direct from the Middle East more appealing to travellers.
In East Asia, Hong Kong and Singapore will delay plans to put their travel bubble into action until 2021, as HK sees a new outbreak of coronavirus whilst Singapore cases decline.
Over the past week, the Western Pacific Region recorded a continued increase of cases, a 9% increase compared to the previous week, but the pattern of trends varies with Japan and Republic of Korea reporting an increase in cases and China, Singapore, the Philippines and others reporting a decreasing number of cases.
In the US, COVID-19 case numbers remain high and the US Government continues to have a level three travel advisory to the United Kingdom in place where it advises US citizens to ‘reconsider travel’ to the United Kingdom due to COVID-19.
As of 1 December, the State of Victoria recorded zero new cases of COVID-19 and zero deaths for the 32nd consecutive day. As of 30 November, there are 57 active cases and have been 908 deaths in Australia.
Health and recovery of market
The Australian Government has established a safe travel zone with New Zealand, with the first passengers from New Zealand arriving in Australia on 17 October as the ‘one-way’ trans-Tasman bubble opened. These passengers were not required to quarantine on arrival in Australia. New Zealanders must confirm they have not been to a COVID-19 hotspot in the last 14 days and must also quarantine for 14 days on arrival back in New Zealand. Under the current rules Australians are not permitted to travel to New Zealand.
Health minister, Greg Hunt, suggested that “widespread international travel” could resume by the end of 2021 if a vaccine was successfully rolled out.
Quarantine and other travel restrictions
Currently only essential international travel is allowed from Australia. Indications from the market are that the international border will remain closed for some time into 2021, with no confirmed dates for re-opening.
Currently any Australian citizen returning home must quarantine in government supervised hotels for 14 days. Quarantine costs must be covered by the individual ($3,000 for the first adult in the group, $1,000 additional adult and $500 for each child aged over 3). Alternatives to hotel quarantine have been deemed unsafe after looking into alternatives such as in-home, on-farm and on-campus options.
36,500 Australians are stranded overseas, with 25,000 expected to be brought home by the end of the year. Quarantine places are rationed to 6,000 arrivals per week. The Government Cap on international arrivals is also proving challenging for airlines, with many flights to Australia currently arriving relatively empty. It is also making it very difficult for Australians trying to secure seats to return home. The Australian Government is now operating a number of repatriation flights for stranded Australian citizens that is allowing them to arrive into smaller states and quarantine in identified facilities.
Aviation
Middle East Carriers started to fly direct to Scotland in July. Qatar is currently operating a limited service between Edinburgh and Doha, and is reviewing the schedule on an ongoing basis, whilst Emirates began flying between Glasgow and Dubai on 15 July, operating 4 flights per week. From 1 December, this will increase to daily. Other International carriers still operating between Australia and the UK are Etihad and Singapore Airlines, with reduced schedules. Whilst Australia is included in the Government air bridge list it’s worth noting that if a passenger is transiting through a country that isn’t, then that passenger will be required to quarantine on arrival. It is now possible to travel to Scotland from the UAE and Qatar without having to quarantine on arrival.
Australian flag carrier, Qantas, have completed three repatriation flights in a month, direct from London to Darwin. Other than repatriation operations, international flights with Qantas have been suspended throughout the pandemic. Qantas flights to the UK were initially suspended until March 2021, but now it seems unlikely to start until October 2021. Qantas have announced they will outsource more than 2,000 ground staff roles in an effort to limit financial losses. This is in addition to job cuts of 6,000 roles announced earlier this year.
Intermediary insights and horizon scanning
As international borders are likely to remain in place until late 2021, travel trade in Australia have turned to developing their domestic product offering and adapting it to be COVID suitable. Tourism Australia is prioritising its recovery efforts towards industry support and stimulating domestic tourism, with the hope that Australians travelling domestically can deliver billions of much needed revenue to the industry.
Indications from operators are that a significant number of international bookings from 2020 have been transferred to 2021 or 2022 rather than cancelled.
For more insights into the Australian market see our visitors from Australia page.
With infections continuing to show an upward trajectory, provinces have started to look at local restrictions.
A monthly rolling travel advisory (extended to 21 Jan 2021) is still in place advising against all non-essential travel. The Canadian / US border closure has been extended until 21 December.
Anyone arriving in Canada for essential travel purposes is subject to a 14-day quarantine period, similar to UK arrival restrictions.
Health and recovery of market
The travel bubble in operation within Canada’s four Atlantic provinces which allows interprovincial travel between Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador where travellers are not be required to self-isolate has been temporarily suspended as the country deals with an increase of COVID-19 cases.
Quarantine and other travel restrictions
Travellers from Canada to the UK / Scotland will be required to quarantine for 14 days.
Aviation
Air Canada has partnered with McMaster Health Labs (MHL) and the Greater Toronto Airports Authority (GTAA) in a study to test arriving international travellers for COVID-19 at Toronto-Pearson. If trials are successful, this would help to lobby government to allow the safe relaxation of travel restrictions. The airline has said, preliminary results from the study indicate testing can help protect customers.
The Alberta Provincial Government has teamed up with the Federal Government on a joint pilot program that will safely test an alternative to the current 14-day quarantine requirement for international travellers returning to Canada. The new pilot, starting on Mon 2 Nov, will test travellers on arrival and then on days six and seven. If a person has a negative test on arrival, they won’t be restricted to quarantine rules as long as they retest on the other days and remain negative. The pilot will take place at Calgary International Airport and The Coutts land border crossing.
A similar initiative has been launched in British Columbia at Vancouver International Airport.
Intermediary insights and horizon scanning
The Canadian travel trade are ready to send visitors to Scotland however, with current border restrictions in place within Canada and the UK this is not possible.
The travel industry are currently lobbying the Federal Government for details of criteria and timescales which will allow the safe reopening of the international border.
For more insights into the Canadian market see our visitors from Canada page.
Travel restrictions into China have become increasingly tight as China retains its commitment to reducing and eliminating imported cases of COVID-19. China has barred entry to non-Chinese visitors from Britain, Belgium and the Philippines. The suspension is a partial reversal of an easing in September when China allowed all foreigners with valid residence permits to enter or return.
Health and recovery of market
As of 22 November China reported 220 new cases of coronavirus in the previous week and no new deaths. The UN WHO classifies transmission as ‘Cluster of Cases’ rather than ‘Community Transmission’. Economic recovery is underway.
Quarantine and other travel restrictions
From 7 November all Chinese passengers returning home to China from the UK (and other foreign countries) must now take the nucleic acid and IgM anti-body test within 48 hours of boarding the flight. The results must be emailed to the local Chinese consulate or embassy in exchange for a ‘green code’ to allow boarding.
In recognition that NHS tests are solely for the purposes of facilitating the domestic Test and Protect service, NHS test results are no longer valid for passengers travelling to China. Instead, passengers are required to obtain a test from a private test centres, within 48 hours ahead of travelling to China.
Hong Kong and Singapore will delay plans to put their travel bubble into action until 2021, and HK will reassess the Covid-19 ‘fourth wave’ situation in late December. As of November 30, HK city registering an average of 16.1 coronvirus cases of unknown origin per day.
Over the past week, the Western Pacific Region recorded a continued increase of cases, with a 9% increase compared to the previous week. Varying patterns of trends were observed in the Region, where countries including Japan, Republic of Korea, Mongolia and Australia reported an increase in cases compared to the previous week, whereas countries including China, Singapore, the Philippines, French Polynesia and Guam reported decreasing number of cases.
Aviation
China's early recovery from the pandemic has allowed authorities reopen its vast domestic air travel market sooner than the rest of the world and Chinese carriers are moving toward a recovery led by the country's vast domestic market. The government has also continued to invest in improving and expanding the transport infrastructure.
The rebound in China’s domestic aviation market contrasts sharply with most regional and global peers but Boeing has raised its rolling forecast for China's aircraft demand for the next 20 years, making the country a bright spot in the aviation market.
Chinese airlines will need more new airplanes through 2039 than Boeing previously predicted.
The policy of tiered suspension programme is still monitored by CAAC. Under this policy, CAAC has suspended several schedules for 1 week because there were more than 5 positive cases found on the flight. For example, Emirates (Dubai – Guangzhou), Finnair (Helsinki – Shanghai), Air China (Paris – Shanghai).
Intermediary insights and horizon scanning
The sale of international travel packages remains suspended in China.
Many businesses have diversified their product and we’re seeing a shift from the sale of large-group-travel to small groups and independent travel.
For more insights into the Chinese market see our visitors from China page or view our China toolkit.
COVID-19 case numbers remain high across the USA. The US Government has issued a level three travel advisory to the United Kingdom where it advises US citizens to ‘reconsider travel’ to the United Kingdom due to COVID-19. US citizens are still subject to a 14-day quarantine period when travelling to UK and Europe.
Health and recovery of market
COVID-19 case numbers remain high across the USA. This includes our key visitor DMA’s of California, New York, Texas, Florida and Illinois which have all seen case increases in the past week (data accurate 1 December).
Quarantine and other travel restrictions
Travelers from the US will be required to quarantine for 14 days upon entering the UK. The US Government has issued a level three travel advisory to the United Kingdom where it advises US citizens to reconsider travel to the United Kingdom due to COVID-19.
Aviation
There are various US air routes in operation connecting key hubs in the US with London Heathrow. Direct air routes between Scotland and the US are expected to resume in 2021. Please note that airline schedules are subject to change and amendments so please check directly with the airline for the latest guidance.
Intermediary insights and horizon scanning
Continued interest from US travel trade on when Scotland will remove travel restrictions for US visitors. Exploring Scotland virtually - with virtual experiences and related content continues to be of interest to travel trade and US consumers alike. Product development continues for many US operators looking at opportunities for 2021, 2022 and beyond.
For more insights into the US market see our visitors from the US page.