Latest research into the UK and Ireland markets and how COVID-19 is impacting plans to visit Scotland
Explore UK consumer research undertaken since March 2020 to examine the impact of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
In this section:
UK consumer sentiment and intentions tracker
The national tourist boards within Great Britain have commissioned tracking research to measure UK residents' holiday intentions.
The original tracking was in place from the end of May 2020 until May 2022. Due to the ongoing requirement to understand consumer intentions, additional tracking will take place during June 2022 to Spring 2023. From June 2022, UK level reports will be available monthly with a Scotland specific report being available every 10-12 weeks.
Topics this research covers:
Consumer confidence
Holiday intentions
Trips taken
Planned trips
Latest reports
The latest UK consumer tracker reports on survey results as at June 2022, based on fieldwork conducted during the period of 8 - 14 June 2022.
In June wave of this research is the first wave of the new, fifth phase of sentiment tracking. With this newly commissioned phase (that will run until March 2023) the opportunity was taken to update the questionnaire to address the rising costs of living impact on trip intentions.
Key take-outs are as follows:
Three quarters (75%) of adults think "the worst is still to come" in relation to the "cost of living crisis". 47% feel things "are OK" but "they have to be careful", with further 24% saying they've already been "hit hard".
Seven in 10 (70%) of UK adults plan on taking an overnight domestic trip in the next 12 months, significantly more than the 49% planning to take an overnight overseas trip in this period. Most of the UK trips are expected to take place between July and September 2022. Confidence for overseas trips is also lower than it was in May.
31% of UK adults intend to take more domestic overnight trips in the next 12 months compared to before the pandemic, while 30% intend to take fewer overseas trips, suggesting a switch from overseas to domestic travel.
39% of respondents indicated they are more likely to choose a UK trip than an overseas trip, compared to pre-pandemic. The top reasons for UK preference is "UK holidays are easier to plan" (65%), and "avoiding long queues at airports/cancelled flights" (54%). For the 21% that would choose an overseas trip over a UK trip, the main reason is "better weather" (41%).
The majority of intenders have already booked their UK (71%) and overseas (73%) trips in July. Trip bookings tend to drop further into the year, with the proportion "decided where to go but not yet booked" increasing.
The "rising cost of living" is the biggest perceived barrier to taking overnight UK trips in the next 6 months (40% stating this), followed by "personal finances" (32%) and "the cost of fuel" (32%). At a net level, "costs and finances" were cited as a barrier by 67%.
As a result of the "cost of living crisis", 34% of UK adults say they will "choose cheaper accommodation" when planning a UK overnight trip in the next six months. 30% expect to "look for more free things to do" and 32% plan to "spend less on eating out". 20% say it would have no influence on their choice of destination.
The South West is the most preferred UK overnight destination for trips between July and September 2022 (24% of intenders planning a trip there), and it remains the top destination between October to December 2022 (20% intending to take a trip there). Scotland is in third equal position with 12% of UK residents considering a break here between July - September (similar to 2021 levels). Looking ahead to Autumn, Scotland is lower in the rankings with 9% considering a trip here (down from the same period in 2021 (17%).
Nearly six in 10 (58%) of UK adults have taken an overnight UK trip since June 2021, nearly twice as many as have taken an overseas overnight trip in that period (30%). Both types of trips are most likely to have been taken in July to September 2021 (domestic: 26% and overseas: 10%).
The latest Scotland report looks at survey results for 1 April to 9 May, 2022. The highlights are:
Consumer Sentiment/Confidence
- As of early May, the UK public are significantly more likely to think ‘the worst has passed’ in relation COVID-19, than ‘the worst is still to come’, a trend that has been consistent since February this year.
- UK and Scotland residents anticipate taking significantly more overnight trips in the next 12 months, than the previous 12 months. This is driven by high ‘trip confidence’, a consistent three quarters of Scotland and UK residents confident that UK trips would go ahead for each month of the year – significantly above confidence for the equivalent period in 2021.
- The strong relative confidence that UK trips would go ahead means that, compared to 2021 more domestic trips are already booked, and a higher proportion of UK residents are anticipating an overnight domestic trip in summer (June to September) and autumn (October to December).
- UK overnight trips continue to be favoured to overseas trips, with a large gap in trip intention and trip confidence, driven in part by older life stages who are more confident in taking domestic trips. UK residents anticipate taking marginally more overseas trips in the next 12 months than in the previous 12 months, and 38% of UK summer intenders are also anticipating an overseas trip.
- Perhaps notably, confidence that overseas trips would go ahead is very similar to confidence in UK trips in the same period last year – however, in addition to financial factors, leading barriers to taking trips overseas also include ‘COVID-related factors’ and ‘the war in Ukraine’. At the time of research, ‘travel chaos’ at airports had not made the news, but it’s likely to be an additional barrier in the summer.
- That said the virus continues to impact leisure intentions amongst a minority, comfort levels with indoor activities not yet at pre-pandemic levels, and some venues/activities still being avoided due to COVID-19. For example, 11% of Scotland residents are avoiding ‘festivals / exhibitions in an enclosed space’ and 9% ‘museums / indoor heritage.’
- As UK residents appear to feel more positive about the situation in relation to COVID-19, concerns around finances appear to be growing – 57% of UK residents describing themselves as either ‘hit hard financially’ or ‘having to be careful’ in relation to the pandemic. A large majority are concerned about rising living costs.
Domestic overnight travel intentions – Summer and Autumn 2022
- Consistent with a trend since the start of this research, the South West of England is the most popular region of the UK for an overnight short break or holiday across both Summer and Autumn. Scotland is the fourth most preferred destination in summer but only two percentage points behind Yorkshire & The Humber in second place. Intentions to visit Scotland are slightly lower than 2021 as a percentage, but given the increase in domestic trip intention overall, intentions are unlikely to drop as an absolute number.
- Unsurprisingly, Scotland residents are the region most likely to intend to take a trip in Scotland, at 48% of all intenders this is slightly lower than the 54% in the same period in 2021. This may indicate an openness to travelling further afield, but given the increase in overall trip intention compared to 2021, does not represent a fall in absolute numbers.
- Scotland summer intenders are more likely than the UK population to fall into the family life stage, particularly amongst Scotland residents.
- There is a relatively even split in the destinations Scotland summer intenders plan on visiting for their trip this summer – ‘countryside or village’, ‘mountains or hills’, ‘rural coastline’ and ‘traditional coastal/seaside town’ are the leading destination types for Scotland intenders living in Scotland and elsewhere in the UK.
- The Scottish Highlands is the part of Scotland most likely to generate an overnight trip this summer, significantly ahead of the Edinburgh area and the West Coast. Consistent with previous reporting, The Highlands generates trip intention from both Scotland-based intenders and non-Scotland-based intenders. In contrast, Edinburgh is the leading destination for non-Scotland resident intenders, and the least preferred for Scotland resident intenders.
- ‘Own car’ is by far the leading mode of transport intended to be used on summer trips to Scotland, particularly amongst Scotland-based intenders. Train is the second leading transport type, linked to trips to cities and therefore driven by non-Scotland-based intenders. Notably public bus/coach is the third most preferred mode of transport – the first time it has made the top three since the research began, and reflecting increased comfort levels with public transport.
- ‘Hotel/motel/inn’, is the number one accommodation type for intended trips in summer - at 39%, almost identical to 2021 intentions. Three in 10 Scotland intenders plan on staying in ‘a private home’, ‘commercial self-catering’ or ‘caravan/camping’ – the latter two particularly high amongst Scotland resident intenders.
- The incidence of UK residents planning on staying in a UK city or large town on their next domestic holiday/short break has consistently increased since the start of the pandemic – the intention in May 2022 higher twice as high as two years ago in June 2020
- Aligned with finances being the biggest perceived barrier to UK travel this summer, ‘large cities tend to be too expensive’ is the leading reason for not staying in a large city this summer, followed by ‘fewer things to do/place to visit’.
Trips taken to Scotland since January 2022
- 21% of UK residents and 20% of Scotland residents have taken an overnight domestic trip since January this year, with incidence highest in April. 8% of UK residents have taken an overseas trip, rising to one in nine Scotland residents.
- UK trip-takers since January are more likely than the population and overseas trip-takers in that period to belong to older life stages such as retirees and older independents.
- Notably, over three quarters (76%) of Scotland residents that have taken a trip since January, took it in Scotland.
- Families make up the highest proportion of trip-takers to Scotland since January 2022, making up two in five of all trip-takers, higher than the UK. Social grades AB also index higher amongst Scotland trip-takers since January compared to the UK population, and to UK trip takers.
- Edinburgh was the leading destination for Scotland trip-takers since January, 35% having taken an overnight trip there.
COVID-19 Consumer Tracking Report - Scotland level monthly summary
Published June 2022
1 April – 9 May 2022 Scotland results
The latest Scotland report looks at survey results for 1 February – 7 March 2022. The highlights are:
Consumer sentiment/confidence
- Scotland residents share similar optimism to UK adults in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic overall. The proportion of Scotland residents stating the ‘worst has passed’ now stands at 59%, at the highest level since the start of the pandemic.
- Comfort levels with ‘typical activities’ continue to climb with double-digit increases since February this year in comfort for ‘travelling by public transport’ and ‘visiting an indoor attraction’. However, the virus continues to impact leisure intentions at some level. Whilst comfort levels have increased significantly, a notable minority remain ‘uncomfortable’ with activities conducted indoors.
- Whilst COVID concerns are clearly declining, ‘financial concerns’ are on the rise. ‘Personal finances’ and ‘rising costs of holiday/leisure’ are perceived to be ‘top 3’ barriers to taking a UK holiday or short break in both the spring and summer. More generally, the vast majority of the UK and Scottish population are now concerned about rising living costs/inflation – a significant increase on the previous reporting period (November to January).
Domestic overnight travel intentions – spring and summer 2022
- Reflecting higher confidence and comfort levels, UK and Scotland residents continue to anticipate taking significantly more UK overnight trips in the next 12 months, than the previous 12 months.
- UK and Scotland residents also anticipate taking more overseas trips, and this is significantly more the case than in the previous reporting period (November to January). However, a high proportion of both UK and Scotland residents don’t know how many domestic and particularly overseas trips they will take, highlighting scope for change in the coming months.
- However, it’s important to note that, despite record rises in comfort levels and ‘COVID-optimism’ since February this year, intention to take spring and summer domestic overnight trips has not increased at a similar rate.
- This suggests that domestic trip intention has hit a ceiling or is being held back by other factors. Given the dominance of ‘personal finances’/’rising cost of leisure’ as barriers to taking spring and summer trips, and ‘free cancellation’ being the leading requirement for the public to visit indoor leisure venues, it may be that concerns around ‘spending power’ is dampening intention.
- Plateauing domestic trip intention may also be driven by competition from overseas trips, but with international trip intention only increasing by two percentage points, this is only likely to have a small influence. That said, around a third of UK trip intenders are planning an overseas trip in the same time period, so a more appealing overseas travel environment may reduce UK trip-taking closer to the time.
- Consistent with a trend since the start of this research, the South West of England is the most popular region of the UK for an overnight short break or holiday across both spring and summer. Scotland is the second most preferred destination in spring and the joint sixth in summer, summer intention dropping by six percentage points since the previous report.
- The drop in Scotland summer trip intention is in part driven by fewer Scotland residents taking an overnight trip there. However, Scotland remains the number one destination for Scotland-based residents across both. periods. That said, as in previous waves, the majority of intenders come from elsewhere in the UK, particularly in the summer when they make up nearly three-quarters of all Scotland intenders. Scotland-based intenders are far more likely than non-Scotland-based intenders to only be considering Scotland for their next trip however. Of those considering other destinations in addition to Scotland, Wales is the most popular alternative choice across both time periods.
- The Scottish Highlands is the part of Scotland most likely to generate an overnight trip this spring and summer. In the spring, the Highlands is followed by the Edinburgh Area – in the summer, by the Scottish Isles.
- Own car’ is by far the leading mode of transport intended to be used on trips to Scotland, across both time. periods. In spring, train is the next most preferred transport type with public bus/coach the next most popular in the summer. Perhaps reflecting higher comfort levels with travelling by public transport, ‘public bus/coach’ makes the top five main modes of travel across both periods for the first time in this reporting series.
COVID-19 Consumer Tracking Report - Scotland level monthly summary
Published April 2022
1 February – 7 March 2022 Scotland results
The latest Scotland report looks at survey results for 4 November 2021 to 10 January 2022. The highlights are:
Consumer sentiment/confidence
As of early January 2022, the UK public are as likely to think the ‘worst has passed’ as ‘the worst is still to come’ in relation to COVID-19. Although this represents a more pessimistic position than through most of 2021, it is slightly more positive than a month earlier in December, and significantly more positive than January 2021, the equivalent fieldwork period last year. 32% of Scotland residents think ‘the worst has passed’ and 25% ‘the worst is still to come’.
‘Comfort levels’ with ‘typical’ activities such as ‘going for a walk in a country park’ and ‘shopping in your local shopping centre’ are higher than at any point since May 2020 and comfort with ‘eating at a restaurant’ has risen by 44 percentage points since January 2021. Consistent with previous reporting within this series, ‘older’ life stages such as ‘retirees’ and ‘older independents’ demonstrate the lowest comfort levels with general leisure activity and are the most likely to avoid activities they would normally do. ‘Pre-nesters’ and families remain the most comfortable.
Perhaps linked to lingering concerns around the virus, the UK and Scotland-based public cite a range of conditions as essential for indoor tourism and leisure providers to have in place for them to visit in the next few months.
Amongst UK residents, ‘free cancellation’ is the number one requirement, with mask wearing (for staff and customers) close behind. Enhanced cleaning regimes and plentiful hand sanitisers also remain important. Scotland residents are significantly more likely than residents from elsewhere in the UK to deem these conditions essential for them to visit, perhaps linked to more rules being in place at the time of research.
Trips taken to Scotland since September 2021
31% of UK residents and 33% of Scotland residents have taken an overnight short break or holiday somewhere in the UK trip since September 2021. 10% of UK residents have taken an overseas trip since September 2021, and 9% of Scotland residents.
Families have significantly higher representation for overseas trips than UK trips taken since September 2021, reflecting their less risk averse attitude to leisure. Retirees are almost twice as likely to have taken a UK overnight trip as an overseas trip.
Consistent with trip intentions at the start of 2021, the South West of England was the UK destination mostly likely to generate an overnight trip since September 2021 (Scotland, sixth). Amongst Scotland residents, Scotland was the most popular destination, with over 3 in 5 taking a trip there. Around 2 in 5 (42%) of overnight trip-takers to Scotland came from outside Scotland.
Scotland trip-takers have a higher proportion than UK trip-takers of ‘retirees’ and social grades DE (the latter driven by a high incidence of retirees).
Similar to UK trip-takers, Scotland trip-takers are most likely to have taken their trip for a holiday/leisure purpose. That said, over 1 in 4 took a trip to visit friends or relatives.
Domestic overnight travel intentions – spring and summer 2022
Reflecting higher confidence and comfort levels, UK and Scotland residents anticipate taking significantly more overnight trips in the next 12 months, than the previous 12 months.
Although the expected uplift in domestic trips will in part be driven by lockdown restrictions taking up around three months of 2021, it is also linked to higher trip confidence levels. Both Scotland and UK residents are significantly more confident that UK trips would go ahead for each month of the year compared to the equivalent period in 2021
UK overnight trips continue to be favoured to overseas trips, with a large gap in trip intention and trip confidence. There are some signs, however, that overseas trip intention is on the rise. UK residents anticipate taking marginally more overseas trips in the next 12 months than in the previous 12 months. 61% of UK intenders are also anticipating an overseas trip. Perhaps notably however, the majority of UK intenders are not planning an overseas trip in the same period as their UK trip, suggesting they may take both types of trips, rather than one or the other.
Aligned with general comfort levels, ‘families’ and higher social grades are more likely to take overnight UK trips and overseas trips – the latter especially so. Retirees index just below the population in terms of UK trips – a contrast to 2021 and 2020 where they were significantly below.
The South West of England remains the most popular region of the UK for an overnight short break or holiday across both winter/spring and summer 2022. Scotland is the fourth most preferred destination for an overnight trip in winter/spring, and the second most preferred in summer.
Scotland remains the number one destination for Scotland-based residents, although the majority of intenders come from elsewhere in the UK.
Scotland winter/spring intenders anticipate taking an overnight trip to a range of destination types – ‘countryside or village’, ‘mountains or hills’, ‘rural coastline’ and ‘large city’ generating similar interest.
Scotland resident intenders are more likely than non-resident intenders to be planning a trip to a ‘rural coastline’ and ‘traditional coastal/seaside town’, less likely to a ‘large city’. The lower incidence of intention amongst Scotland residents to visit a ‘large city’ is evidenced by ‘non-Scotland-based’ winter/spring intenders being 3 times as likely to visit the Edinburgh area in the winter/spring, and twice as likely to do so in the summer.
The Scottish Highlands holds universal appeal, being the number one destination for winter/spring and summer intenders regardless of their origin.
‘Hotel/motel/inn’, ‘a private home’ and ‘commercial self-catering’ make up the top three accommodation types for Scotland intenders in winter/spring and summer. However, Scotland-based intenders are significantly more likely to opt for ‘caravan/camping’ and significantly less likely to be planning on staying in a ‘private home’ on their trip.
City/Town intenders
There are signs that intention to take overnight trips to large cities is increasing with intention to visit a large city on a Scotland trip and intention to visit Edinburgh significantly higher than in the equivalent periods in 2021. This correlates with comfort levels with activities that involve high densities of people, at their highest point since the start of the pandemic, and desire to stay in ‘hotels’ also high.
That said, there remain clear patterns that separate large city intenders from large city non-intenders. Large city intenders continue to be significantly more likely to be pre-nesters and from high social grades – two audiences that are more likely to have access to large cities through their employment. ‘Concerns about catching COVID-19 in a large city’ remains one of the leading reasons for avoiding them.
COVID-19 Consumer Tracking Report - Scotland level monthly summary
Published February 2022
The latest Scotland report looks at survey results for 26 July to 29 August 2021. The highlights are:
Consumer Sentiment/Confidence
As at the last week in August, the UK public are evenly split in their perceptions of the situation in relation to COVID-19 with 26% thinking that the worst is still to come with the same proportion believing that ‘the worst has passed’ and just over half (52%) thinking that things are going to stay the same. The latter category shows a departure from the majority of sentiment in 2021, where significantly more people thought ‘the worst has passed’.
The vast majority of the UK population do not expect normality this year with only 14% expecting normality by December (far less than in June 2021) and less than half by April to June 2022.The fall in optimism is driven by older age groups.
Flattening optimism may be in part a reflection on limited headroom for improvement, rather than immediate fears things are immediately getting worse. There are also signs that this pessimism does not translate to a reduction in immediate leisure behaviour. Despite their greater pessimism, confidence levels amongst retirees has increased since June and they are in the ‘protective but pragmatic’ segment – a cohort that is responsible but active.
Confidence that a booked domestic trip would go ahead between October and December is lower than the previous report, driven by retirees and older independents. Notably, ‘I have concerns about catching COVID-19’ is the leading reason for low confidence – the first time it has been most influential since the start of the year. Fears that government restrictions will impact trips are significantly lower than in June this year, suggesting the threat of further lockdowns is not impacting confidence.
Trips taken to Scotland - June to August 2021
As of late August, 29% of UK adults had taken an overnight short break or holiday somewhere in the UK between June and end August 2021. For Scotland residents, this figure is significantly higher than the rest of the UK at 38% (driven by higher trips taken in July). The proportion of overnight trip takers from Scotland and elsewhere in the UK is significantly higher than in 2020.
11% of UK trips were taken in Scotland during June to late August with Scotland rising again to the third most popular destination in the UK (after the South West and North West of England) – a rise from tenth place for April to June trips, confirming that the previous low position was due to the later lifting of Scotland restrictions. Of these June-August trips, 39% were taken by non-Scotland residents with the majority of trip takers (61%) coming from within Scotland highlighting again the importance of the home market in 2021.
Trip takers to Scotland in this period indexed higher amongst families than the wider population (particularly in August). A notable finding here is that retirees taking an overnight trip to Scotland is in line with the population which is a marked difference to the situation in 2020 showing the increased confidence in this group over the summer.
There is a difference in these results for this period as Scotland trip takers between June and late August had higher than average representation in the ‘protective but pragmatic’ segment – a change from the ‘life goes on’ and ‘less to lose’ segments in the previous report. This represents an older audience perhaps activated to travel by the sense that it is no longer ‘irresponsible’ to do so as well as the protection from the vaccine.
Edinburgh was the no.1 single destination for a domestic overnight trip between June to late August driven by non-Scotland based trip takers (4 x as likely to stay here than Scots). Edinburgh is significantly more popular as a destination than in 2020. For Scotland residents, the Highlands by far continues to be the most popular destination.
Countryside or village is the leading type of destination for trips taken between June and late August, particularly amongst Scotland residents. Although ‘large city’ continues to be the joint second most visited destination type (with ‘traditional coastal town’) it is significantly behind ‘countryside or village’. Scotland residents are significantly less likely to have taken a trip to a large city in Scotland.
Hotel/Motel/Inn was the most popular choice for an overnight Scotland holiday, followed by ‘private home’ (driven by VFR trips) and ‘caravan/camping’.
Domestic overnight travel intentions – autumn and winter
29% of UK adults anticipate taking an overnight domestic trip between September and December this year. Intention amongst Scotland residents is almost identical to intention across the UK.
After the South West of England (22%) and Yorkshire/Humber (12%), Scotland is the third preferred destination choice for UK intenders this September to December (11%). Once again, the majority of autumn/winter intenders continue to live outside of Scotland with London being the biggest source market of non-Scots intenders (14%) followed by the North West of England (11%) and Yorkshire/Humber (9%). As in previous reporting it is possible that the balance may switch when it comes to actual booking (if issues around domestic travel persist and/or Scotland adopts different restrictions).
Families are set to be the biggest life stage for overnight trips in Scotland between September and December (perhaps driven by the October school holidays) . In September and October, retirees index above their fallout in the population, further suggesting that increasing pessimism is not impacting near-term behaviour.
Nearly half (49%) of Scotland autumn & winter intenders have already planned their Scotland trip with 47% having booked it. Once again, Scotland intenders are planning their Sept-Dec trips closer to the time and booking significantly closer than normal.
Scotland Autumn/Winter intenders are most likely to plan on staying in ‘rural coastline’ on their Scotland trip. ‘Large city’ is the second most popular destination type marginally ahead of ‘mountains or hills’ though this high placing is driven by non-Scots. The Highlands remains a popular destination for Scotland autumn/winter intenders living within and outside Scotland – particularly the former.
’Hotel, motel, inn’ is the preferred accommodation choice for September – December intenders, followed by a ‘private home’ and ‘commercial self-catering’. Accommodation choice differs by destination type with ‘rural intenders’ indexing the highest on ‘commercial self catering’ and city/town destinations unsurprisingly indexing the highest for ‘hotel/motel/inn’.
Own car continues to be the leading mode of transport to be used on trips to Scotland in the September to December period (67%). Train is the next most preferred transport type (11%).
City/Town intenders
There is a rise in intention in visiting a ‘large city’ perhaps driven by seasonality, but may also reflect higher confidence levels with visiting a ‘busy city centre’ and a small drop in those stating ‘we are more likely to avoid large cities or towns’. That said ‘avoiding cities and large towns’ remains the most dominant impact of Covid-19 on overnight trips, and confidence has only risen marginally.
The COVID Cautious retirees appear most averse to visiting cities, with pre-nesters the most interested – a trend unlikely to change in the short term. The biggest barrier to staying in a large city is ‘catching COVID-19’ whilst ‘restrictions on things to do’ are also relatively influential. However, both of these are less impactful than earlier in the year.
Discounted accommodation remains the leading incentive that would encourage a stay in a city/town amongst those that don’t currently intend to stay in one, followed by Covid cleanliness measures and open visitor attractions and restaurants Together, these factors suggest the need for city communications to mix safety, reassurances of a guaranteed experience and financial incentives.
COVID-19 Consumer Tracking Report - Scotland level monthly summary
Published September 2021
The latest Scotland report looks at survey results for 31 May to 2 July 2021. The highlights are:
Consumer Sentiment/Confidence
There is a sense of acceptance amongst the UK population that the ‘COVID-19 environment’ is here to stay. We are witnessing plateauing sentiment with the proportion thinking ‘the worst has passed’ higher than at any point in the last year but this has not increased in the last three waves. Intentions to take an overnight UK trip in either the summer or autumn remain at the same level as in the previous reporting period - there are still a considerable proportion of the UK population for whom UK breaks and holidays are not yet a consideration.This plateauing of sentiment is likely driven by increasing COVID-19 case numbers – ‘catching coronavirus’ is the second biggest driver of low travel confidence (after the threat of government restrictions).
The vast majority of the UK population do not expect normality this year – only 30% expect normality by December and only two-thirds by April-June 2022. Pre-nesters and families are the most optimistic.
The previous report suggested that Scotland residents were some way behind UK residents in their comfort levels with everyday activities and travel confidence. This large gap was attributed to differences in restrictions (at the time, parts of Scotland were in level 3, whilst England was in the equivalent of level 2). Although, this gap has now closed significantly, Scotland residents are still slightly more cautious.
From July onwards, more than half of the UK population are confident a booked domestic overnight trip would go ahead as planned, plateauing at around three in five from August onwards. However, two in five are not confident a trip would go ahead at any point this year, underlining ongoing caution within the population.
Domestic overnight travel intentions – summer and autumn
44% of UK adults anticipate taking an overnight trip between July-December this year, with over a third (34%) planning to do so this summer (July - September). Intention amongst Scotland residents is almost identical to intention across the UK (45%). On balance, both the UK and Scottish public anticipate taking ‘net fewer’ UK trips this year.
After the South West of England (22%), Scotland is the second preferred destination choice for UK intenders this summer (13%) and third for the autumn (October-December). For Scotland residents, 60% intend to take a summer break in Scotland (an increase on previous reporting).
The majority of summer intenders continue to live outside of Scotland though previous data suggests the balance may switch when it comes to actual booking (will be restrictions dependent). London residents are the most significant source of Scotland intenders in both summer (11%) and autumn (14%) with the North West of England (8%) being the next most significant (South East in the autumn – 13%).
Older independents (35-54, no children) are likely to be the largest life stage spending an overnight stay in Scotland this summer, with higher representation than in the wider UK population. Families are likely to be the second largest group, in line with the population.
Over half (55%) of Scotland summer intenders have already planned their Scotland trip with 42% having booked it, a significant increase on the proportion that had done so in late May. Booking levels for Scotland do remain behind levels reported in the wider UK (49%). Generally, Scotland intenders are planning their summer trip closer to the date than normal and booking significantly closer than normal.
Scotland summer intenders are most likely to plan on staying in a ‘countryside or village’ on their Scotland trip. A 'traditional coastal town' is the second most preferred destination for UK residents, and the most preferred for Scotland residents planning a trip in Scotland. Only 20% of UK residents are planning visiting a ‘city or large town’ in Scotland though this is an increase on the previous report.
The Highlands remains the most favoured destination for Scotland summer intenders living within and outside Scotland – particularly the former. Edinburgh is the second most preferred destination for summer intenders, but significantly less so for Scotland residents (who are likely to make up the majority of trip takers).
Although ’hotel, motel, inn’ is the number one specific type of accommodation for summer trips (40%) and autumn trips (58%), ‘non-serviced’ accommodation has a clear lead in terms of where people want to stay i.e. commercial self-catering, a private home (including homestay websites) or caravan and camping. Accommodation choice differs by destination type. Those considering a trip to a Scottish coastal or rural destination are most likely to be planning ‘camping/caravanning’ whilst ‘rural intenders’ index the highest on ‘commercial self catering’. City/town destinations unsurprisingly index the highest on ‘hotel/motel/inn’.
'Own car' continues to be the leading mode of transport to be used on trips to Scotland in the summer (67%) and autumn (59%). Train is the next most preferred transport type (11%).
City/Town intenders
Interest in visiting a ‘large city’ has risen since the previous report, but continues to be well down the list of holiday destination type preferences this summer (fourth most popular). This is likely to be driven by rising Delta variant COVID-19 cases with ‘concerns about being more likely to catch COVID-19 in a large city’ being the most common reason for not staying in this destination type.
The COVID-19 cautious retirees appear most averse to visiting cities, with pre-nesters the most interested – a trend unlikely to change in the short term. However, ‘restrictions on opportunities to socialise’ and ‘fewer things to do/places to visit’ are also leading factors (particularly for younger life stages and the more coronavirus confident segments) for not visiting a city, suggesting that the continued lifting of restrictions may act as a catalyst for visits.
Discounted accommodation is the leading incentive that would encourage a stay in a city/town amongst those that don’t currently intend to stay in one, followed by coronavirus cleanliness measures and open visitor attractions and restaurants. These factors suggest the need for city communications to mix safety, reassurances of a guaranteed experience and financial incentives.
Trips taken since April
As of early July, 28% of UK residents had taken an overnight short break or holiday somewhere in the UK since April 2021. For Scotland residents, this figure is almost a quarter at 24%.
7% of UK trip takers took a trip to Scotland. As the tenth most visited destination, visits to Scotland are behind projections for this time period. This will be in part related to the high level of VFR trips to other destinations, but may also be linked to parts of Scotland raising restrictions slightly later than England.
Trip takers to Scotland index higher amongst older independents than the wider population (particularly amongst Scotland residents), with retirees and families in line with the population. Elsewhere in the UK families dominate trips taken.
Scotland trip takers are more likely than the broader population to fall into the COVID-19 confident segments such as ‘life goes on’ and ‘less to lose’ – consistent with trip takers elsewhere in the UK.
Countryside or village is the leading type of destination for trips taken since April, particularly amongst Scotland residents. Although ‘large city’ is the joint second most visited destination type (with ‘traditional coastal town’) it is significantly behind ‘countryside or village’. Scotland residents are significantly less likely to have taken a trip to a large city in Scotland.
For Scotland residents, a ‘private home’ and ‘caravan/camping’ indexed higher than the UK population where hotel/motel/inn was the most popular choice for an overnight Scotland holiday.
COVID-19 Consumer Tracking Report - Scotland level monthly summary
Published July 2021
31 May - 2 July Scotland results
The latest Scotland report looks at survey results for 19 April to 21 May 2021. The highlights are:
Sentiment / trip confidence
Both the Scottish and wider UK public are relatively optimistic about the situation with COVID-19, with 2 in 5 of UK adults continuing to state the ‘worst has passed’ consistent with the previous reporting period. The outlook is more positive than at any point in 2020, however, the very latest figures have shown a drop in optimism compared to the high point in early May. This is likely to be due to increasing COVID-19 case numbers and the spread of the Delta variant. The Scottish population are once again slightly more pessimistic than their UK counterparts possibly due a large proportion of the Scots population being under tighter restrictions.
In terms of risk, people are now reporting their highest comfort levels to date – "eating at a restaurant" is now 10 percentage points higher than in August 2020 and there have also been rises in "shopping in your local shopping centre"; "travelling by public transport" and "visiting an indoor attraction".
In terms of confidence, more than half of the UK population are confident a booked domestic overnight trip would go ahead as planned, plateauing at 3 in 5 from September to the end of the year. 45% are now confident a planned trip will go ahead in June (an increase of 10 percentage points on April) and 54% confident for July trips (+7% points). Once again, Scotland residents are significantly less likely than the UK public to express such confidence for summer trips.
Despite increasing comfort levels and stronger confidence, the majority of the population still do not expect life to return to normal until 2022 or later. Only 3 in 10 (30%) expect normality by September 2021 with 4 in 10 by December (43%). Pre-nesters and families are the most positive. Scotland residents’ expectations are significantly lower than amongst the wider UK public and have dropped since the previous reporting period in April.
Summer (June – September) intentions
Nearly half (48%) of UK adults anticipate taking an overnight trip between June and December 2021, with over a third (37%) planning to do so this summer (June-September) with the highest intention in August. 30% of Scotland residents plan on taking an overnight trip this summer.
The majority of those intending to visit Scotland continue to live outside of Scotland with 66% of Scotland intenders being non-Scotland residents with the North of England and London contributing the highest number of potential visitors. This should be caveated however, as previous experience has shown that in reality the balance may shift further in favour of Scotland residents, particularly if concerns around different restrictions persist.
Most of those considering Scotland as a holiday or short break destination are only considering Scotland (with a small proportion also considering Wales and the North West of England) and this is even higher for Scotland residents who continue to show their loyalty towards staying in Scotland.
Profile of Scotland intenders
Consistent with the April report, intenders to Scotland are once again showing an older age profile. Older independents (35-64 no children) are likely to be the largest life stage taking an overnight stay in Scotland this summer. Families make up the second largest group with retirees in third place. For Scotland resident intenders, older independents and retirees make up 58% of intended trips but there is a higher representation of families from within Scotland than from the rest of the UK. Scots resident intenders are far less likely to be pre-nesters (10%).
In terms of COVID-19 segments, ‘less to lose’ remains the highest represented single segment amongst intenders. However, there still remains a slight skew towards COVID cautious segments. These more cautious segments are willing to take overnight trips due to an increasing level of confidence (and given these are older age groups probably because of the vaccine effect).
Planning and Booking
Around 2 in 5 (40%) of Scotland summer intenders have started planning their trip with just under a third having booked it (slightly down on the UK average). Generally, Scotland intenders appear to be planning their trip further ahead than normal but booking significantly closer to the travel date.
As before, booking preference varies considerably by life stage – retirees are more likely to prefer direct bookings (and least likely to choose an online travel agent) with pre-nesters indexing highest for online travel agencies and homestay websites (e.g. AirBnB)
Trip characteristics
Trips to Scotland in summer are slightly more likely to be holidays of 4+ nights although Scotland residents are more likely to be taking short breaks across this period (with the exception of July/August where longer breaks are the norm regardless of place of residence). The vast majority of trips are ‘holidays’, although just over a quarter (26%) intend to visit friends or family.
Scotland summer intenders are most likely to stay in ‘countryside or village’ or ‘mountains and hills’ on their trip. The lure of a coastal location is apparent for Scots with almost a third (32%) choosing ‘traditional coastal / seaside town’ with 26% choosing ‘rural coastline’ destinations. A fifth of intenders to Scotland coastal/seaside destinations intend to travel with their pets. Once again, intenders are less likely to consider cities (large or small) during the summer.
The Highlands remains the most favoured destination for summer intenders living within (41%) and outside Scotland (36%). Edinburgh remains as the second most popular destination overall for Scotland summer intenders (25%) – but this is very much driven by non-Scotland residents (35%). Only 8% of Scots intend to visit Edinburgh (and 7% Glasgow). The West Coast is also much more popular with Scotland residents for the summer (28%).
In terms of transport type, there has been a change since the April report with alternative forms of transport (other than car) starting to become more popular. That said, own car is still the dominant transport choice (58% of Scotland intenders and 60% of Scotland residents). However, train is in second place with almost a fifth (19%) of Scotland intenders using it (the highest we have seen). 9% of summer intenders are also planning to fly (earlier we saw that Londoners were significant Scotland intenders so this may account for some of that rise).
Although ’hotel, motel, inn’ is the number one specific type of accommodation for summer trips (40%), ‘non-serviced’ accommodation has a clear lead in terms of where people want to stay i.e. commercial self-catering, a private home (including homestay websites) or caravan and camping. Reassuringly for the sector, a fifth (20%) have chosen ‘guesthouse/B&B/farmhouse’ (rising to a quarter (25%) of Scotland residents)
City and town intenders
Despite increasing comfort levels and travel confidence, intention to take a trip to a large city has declined since the previous April report. There is also a divide between city/town intenders and those planning on stays in other types of destination when in Scotland. Those intending to stay in a city/town destination in Scotland this summer are more likely to be families and those from ‘COVID-19 confident’ segments. Non city intenders are represented by a wide range of segments, suggesting that cities are more likely to be regarded as a risk for those who are more cautious about COVID-19.
Concerns about being likely to catch COVID-19 in a large city is the most common reason for not staying in this destination type, particularly amongst retirees and COVID cautious segments (despite the strong uptake in vaccinations). However, ‘restrictions on opportunities to socialise’ and ‘fewer things to do/places to visit’ are also leading factors (particularly for younger life stages and the more COVID confident) suggesting that guarantees of a positive experience are important alongside reassurances of safety.
Leisure activity
Although a move towards pre-pandemic activity is apparent in most activity types including for indoor attractions, there still appears to be negative intention to attend festivals/exhibitions/sports events in an enclosed space (-19% for UK residents and -28% for Scotland residents).
COVID-19 Consumer Tracking Report - Scotland level monthly summary
Published June 2021
19 April - 21 May Scotland results
The latest Scotland report looks at survey results for 10March to 10 April 2021. The highlights are:
Sentiment / Trip Confidence
Optimism has been steadily increasing and is now at its highest level since the pandemic began with 2 in 5 of UK adults stating the ‘worst has passed’. This is similar now among the Scotland population, and in the latest wave, Scots are (for the first time) slightly more optimistic than their UK counterparts with 44% believing the worst has passed.
The vaccine plays a role in this uplift in optimism – over 45s that have had the vaccine are more confident that a trip will go ahead in the next 6 months than over 45s who have not received it. They are also more likely to be intending to take a trip in spring and summer this year.
However, the majority of the population still do not expect life to return to normal until 2022 or later. September 2021 appears to be a psychological tipping point when 33% of UK residents (up from 21% in August) and 30% of Scotland residents (up from 18% in August) believe things will ‘return close to normal’. Pre-nesters display a higher level of optimism and are most likely to believe life will return close to normal by July.
Spring/summer Intentions
1 in 7 UK (14%) and Scotland adults (13%) anticipate taking an overnight UK trip in Spring this year (April-June). More than twice that plan on taking a summer trip between July - September (35% of UK adults and 30% of Scotland adults). These figures have increased significantly since the beginning of the year showing increasing confidence; there are now less people stating that they ‘don’t intend to take a trip’.
For those intending to visit Scotland from the UK as a whole, the relative proportion of those considering Scotland in the spring has fallen since the beginning of the year from 14% to 11%, but due to the increase in those being confident about taking a UK break, the absolute volume of those considering Scotland has increased. It is the same for the summer period with 11% of Scotland intenders now stating they intend to come to Scotland (down from 13% at the beginning of the year) but more people are planning to take trips.
Overall, for spring, 55% of Scotland intenders are from outside of Scotland with the balance being made up by Scotland residents (45%) and for summer, 64% of Scotland intenders are from outside Scotland with 36% being resident in Scotland.
Scots currently remain very loyal to staying in Scotland for their next break. Of those planning to take a trip, 62% of Scotland residents plan to take their overnight break in Scotland in spring with 60% planning a summer (July-Sept) break in Scotland. Many Scotland residents are only considering Scotland as their destination for the Spring/Summer. The next most loyal audiences for choosing Scotland are those in the North of England (in particular the North West).
Profile of Scotland intenders
The profile of those now considering Scotland has changed from reports at the beginning of the year to older lifestages – most likely due to the influence of the vaccine. Older independents are now likely to be the largest audience for Scotland spring (31%) and summer trips (32%). Retirees are also over-represented amongst Scotland spring intenders relative to the population – a significant difference to January/early Feb when they were under-represented. Families rank higher in the summer months (29% of Scotland summer intenders).
Social Grades AB continue to have higher representation amongst Scotland intenders significantly so in the spring (33%) and to a lesser extent in summer (26%). Scotland spring and summer intenders are also slightly more likely than the UK population to state ‘I’m better off financially than before the pandemic’ or ‘I’ve not been affected financially’.
In terms of COVID-19 segments, ‘Less to Lose’ remains the highest represented segment amongst intenders, however, the more 'Covid Cautious' segments also have higher representation, reflecting the relatively high incidence of older life stages.
Planning and booking
The increasing levels of confidence are also being reflected in planning and booking patterns. Around 2 in 5 (42%) of Scotland spring intenders have started planning their trip with just over a third having booked it. 1 in 4 (26%) have started planning their summer trip with 1 in 5 (21%) having booked it. Generally, there is still a tendency for people to be planning further ahead than normal but booking significantly closer to the travel date (though this may be different for certain types of accommodation in specific locations with high demand).
As before, booking preference varies considerably by life stage – retirees are more likely to prefer direct bookings (and least likely to choose an online travel agent) with pre-nesters indexing highest for OTAs and homestay websites (e.g. AirBnB)
Trip characteristics
Trips to Scotland in spring are slightly more likely to be short breaks, whilst summer trips are slightly more likely to be holidays of 4+ nights. Across both time periods, the vast majority of trips are ‘holidays’, although visits to friends or family index significantly higher in spring perhaps reflecting the need to catch up with social contacts.
Scotland spring intenders are most likely to stay in a ‘countryside or village’ location on their trip, followed by ‘rural coastline’ and ‘mountains and hills’. In summer, rural coastline becomes even more popular with Scotland residents, with 42% of them choosing it as a destination type. Once again, intenders are less likely to consider cities (large or small) in the spring though larger cities become slightly more popular in the summer (21%).
The Highlands remains the most favoured destination for spring and summer intenders living within (51%) and outside Scotland (35%). The West Coast is also popular with Scotland residents in both spring and summer (25%) as are the Scottish Isles (20%). Edinburgh remains as the second most popular destination overall for spring holidays – this is very much driven by non-Scotland residents. If the balance shifts in favour of Scotland residents (as happened last year) it is likely once again that visitors to cities will suffer as a result (see section below on barriers and incentives).
Own car is the dominant transport choice once again with the majority of Scotland intenders intending to drive (74% of Scotland intenders and 86% of Scotland residents for spring trips). Train remains in second place but with a lower proportion than at the beginning of the year, with 9% choosing that method of travel for spring travel to Scotland (down from 17%) and 12% in summer. Motorhome/campervan also makes an appearance for summer trips with 5% of Scotland intenders choosing it.
Although ’hotel, motel, inn’ is the number one specific type of accommodation for spring trips, ‘non-serviced’ accommodation has a clear lead in terms of where people want to stay i.e. commercial self-catering, a private home (including homestay websites) or caravan and camping. In summer, this lead is even stronger for non-serviced accommodation. Camping and caravanning is very strong for Scotland residents during the summer months alongside commercial self-catering.
City and town Intenders – barriers and incentives
Those intending to stay in a city/town destination in Scotland this spring or summer are more likely to be younger life stages as well as belonging to higher socio-economic grades compared to those wanting to visit more rural areas (34% compared to 22%). This group is also more likely than non-city/town intenders to state ‘I’ve not been affected financially by COVID-19’.
At a UK level, city/town intenders are also more comfortable conducting everyday indoor activities than non-considerers. They are happier to eat out at a restaurant for example (60% versus 53%).
Top reasons for not staying in a city are concerns about catching COVID-19 (37%); restrictions on opportunities to socialise (31%); fewer things to do (30%) and ‘large cities tend to be too expensive’ (30%). A fifth have also stated that they would not stay in a city regardless of COVID-19.
Retirees are the most likely life stage to avoid cities because of concerns about catching COVID-19. For pre-nesters and families the leading barriers are related to restrictions on things to do/places to visit. They are also most likely to cite finances as a barrier.
Discounted accommodation is the leading incentive that would encourage a stay in a city/town amongst those that don’t currently intend to stay in one, followed closely by Covid-safe cleanliness measures and open restaurants/bars and visitor attractions. A fifth have stated that nothing would encourage them to stay in a city in the next few months.
For families, visitor attractions are a priority – beyond discounted accommodation, they need all visitor attractions to be open and they are the most likely lifestage to state ‘discounted entry to visitor attractions’
Leisure activity
Likelihood to engage in all net activities in the next few months has increased since January/early February. However, it is still only outdoor activities that are set to generate the most visits. There is still some reluctance to visit indoor venues and activities though anticipated engagement with all types of activities and areas have increased since earlier in the year.
COVID-19 Consumer Tracking Report - Scotland level monthly summary
Published April 2021
10 March - 10 April Scotland results
The latest Scotland report looks at survey results for 11 Jan to 13 Feb 2021. The highlights are:
Sentiment / trip confidence
As of mid-Feb, the proportion of UK adults stating the ‘worst has passed’ was higher than those stating ‘the worst is still to come’ for only the second time since March 2020. Scotland resident sentiment is slightly more pessimistic than sentiment in the UK overall.
Fewer than 1/3 of UK and Scotland adults are confident that an overnight UK trip would go ahead at any point this spring (March-June). Within the summer months (July-Sept) confidence rises, although it is not until August that more than ½ of UK adults are confident and not until September that a majority of Scotland residents are confident.
Even before the announcements of this week, Scotland residents were slightly less confident than UK residents as a whole that an overnight UK trip would go ahead in both the spring and summer.
Scotland residents are more likely to state that ‘government restrictions’ are behind this lack of confidence but also more likely to state ‘it is not responsible to travel in this period’ than their UK counterparts.
Effects of vaccine
Optimism and mood ratings are highest among adults of retirement age, driven by high incidence of this life stage having had their first dose of vaccine.
However, there is limited evidence that the vaccine will lead to an immediate boost in leisure behaviour. Although retirees that have had the vaccine are more positive than those that haven’t, their approach is still to be cautious and they are only slightly more likely to be intending to take a spring or summer trip. They are just less likely to state ‘I have concerns about catching COVID-19’ as a reason for not doing so. The PM announcements of 22 February may encourage some of this group to be more confident about travelling.
Spring/summer intentions
Overall, 1 in 7 UK (and Scotland) residents anticipate taking an overnight UK trip this spring, rising to 1 in 4 in the summer. These figures are already higher than trip predictions for summer 2020 showing more confidence than last year (likely to be vaccine related).
Looking at the UK population overall, we continue to see that the majority of 2021 Scotland Spring intenders (59%) live outside of Scotland (41% of Scotland residents) with 69% from outside Scotland intending a summer break here. This is a repeat of the pattern that was seen in 2020 but when it came to reality, the balance shifted in favour of Scotland residents. This is likely to be the case again if government restrictions/concerns around domestic travel persist.
Scots currently remain very loyal to staying in Scotland for their next break. The majority of Scotland resident intenders (64%) are planning on staying in Scotland in the Spring (March-June). In the summer (July-September), 61% of Scots are planning taking their next overnight trip in Scotland. The next most loyal audiences for choosing Scotland are those in the North East (25% spring / 29% summer) and Yorkshire/Humberside (16% / 12% respectively). 15% of London residents are also planning a trip to Scotland in the summer.
Profile of Scotland intenders
Families are likely to be the largest audience for Scotland spring/summer trips, with older independents making up the second largest segment, followed by pre-nesters.
Social Grades AB continue to have higher representation amongst Scotland intenders particularly in the summer making up a third.
In terms of COVID-19 segments, ‘Less to Lose’ is the highest represented segment amongst intenders, currently constrained also make up around a quarter of Scotland intenders (higher than the UK population as a whole). (slide 43). This segment will need more reassurance about success of the vaccine and decreased infection rate before travelling.
For half of Scottish spring intenders (51%), restrictions on opportunities to socialise is a reason for not travelling suggesting that when bubble sizes are increased there may be a growth in intentions. This is more of a barrier than in the UK population as a whole. It is not perceived to be as much of an issue in the summer.
Planning and booking
Around 2 in 5 (42%) of Scotland spring intenders have started planning their trip with just 1 in 4 having booked it. 1 in 7 have started planning their summer trip with 1 in 9 having booked it. Those UK residents planning an overnight trip to Scotland state they are more likely to book their trip closer to the travel date than normal perhaps due to fears over government restrictions (Scotland residents are less likely to do this with a sizeable proportion booking more consistently with their normal patterns or earlier than normal – perhaps because they have a favourite location/accommodation that they wish to secure and know demand may be high).
Booking preference varies considerably by life stage – retirees are more likely to prefer direct bookings (and least likely to choose an online travel agent) with pre-nesters indexing highest for OTAs and homestay websites (e.g. AirBnB).
Trip characteristics
Scotland spring intenders are most likely to stay in a countryside or village on their trip, followed by mountains or hills. In summer, rural coastline becomes more popular particularly with Scotland residents. Once again, intenders are less likely to choose a city or large town in the spring.
The Highlands remains the most favoured destination for spring and summer intenders living within and outside Scotland. The West Coast is also popular with Scotland residents in both spring and summer. Although, Edinburgh remains as the second most popular destination overall for spring holidays – this is very much driven by non-Scotland residents. If the balance shifts in favour of Scotland residents (as happened last year) it is likely once again that visitors to cities will suffer as a result. Scotland residents planning a trip to Edinburgh are either pre-nesters (36%) or families (34%). Non-Scotland residents intending to visit Edinburgh tend to fall into older life stages.
Car is king once again with the majority of Scotland intenders intending to drive (61% of Scotland intenders and 74% of Scotland residents for spring trips). However, there has been a resurgence of travel by train with 17% choosing that method of travel for Spring travel to Scotland (may be linked to cities visitation as above).
Although ’hotel, motel, inn’ is the number one specific type of accommodation for spring trips, ‘non-serviced’ accommodation has a clear lead in terms of where people want to stay i.e. commercial self-catering, a private home (including homestay websites) or caravan and camping. In summer, this lead is even stronger for non-serviced accommodation. However, a quarter of Scotland summer intenders have also chosen Guesthouse/B&B/Farmhouse as their preference and this shows some encouragement for the sector (although this is driven by UK residents and not Scots).
Average anticipated spend on a Scotland break by UK intenders is £668 on average with Scots spending slightly less at £618.
Leisure activity
As has been the trend, UK and Scotland residents anticipate conducting more visits to outdoor areas and engaging in more outdoor leisure/sports during Spring/Summer trips. Indoor activities and attractions will continue to struggle as intentions for these venues is still lower at the current time.
COVID-19 Consumer Tracking Report - Scotland level monthly summary
Published March 2021
11 January - 13 February 2021 Scotland results
The latest Scotland report looks at survey results for 12th October to 6th December 2020. Compared to the previous results of end August to beginning of October 2020, the highlights are:
Consumer Sentiment
- With reports of an impending vaccine in October, and the November announcement of its success and plans for immediate roll out, there was a gradual growth in optimism across the U.K., with the proportion stating the ‘worst was yet to come ‘ falling from 66% in mid-October to 39% in late November
- However, whilst the population have become more optimistic in their general outlook, they are still displaying caution when it comes to their leisure behaviour. Confidence in the ability to take near-term overnight domestic trips is low. In late-September / early-October, 27% of U.K residents were confident a trip would go ahead in December. However, as of late November the percentage has dropped to 14%, with a similar fall amongst Scottish residents. Limited confidence extends to day trips, the U.K. and Scotland population expecting to take significantly fewer day trips across the Christmas period compared to normal
- Lack of confidence in travelling from December to March is largely driven by restrictions on travel from the government - particularly among Scotland residents where restrictions tend to be introduced earlier than England. Concerns over catching COVID-19 have dropped (from 51% to 46% among U.K. residents), but are still a strong influence.
- The drop in confidence is apparent across all life stages but particularly so amongst retirees, who have consistently under-indexed on trips taken during the pandemic.
- 14% of the U.K. population plan on taking a trip between December and March (12% of Scottish residents). The South West is the most popular destination, followed by London and the North West. Scotland is the 5th most popular destination in this period, although by far the number one destination amongst Scotland residents.
- The population becomes more confident that trips would go ahead between April and June, rising to a clear majority in July to September. However only 1 in 5 are planning to take a trip in either period and a similar proportion ‘don’t know but would like to take a trip’ suggesting many will wait before making a decision.
- It’s worth noting that despite still being in the negative, intentions to take overseas longer trips have increased, suggesting that the public are increasingly starting to consider trips outside of the U.K.
- Aside from Scotland residents, residents from the North East and Northern Ireland are the most likely to be planning a trip to Scotland between December and March. Those from the south of the U.K. are noticeably less likely to be looking to travel to Scotland
Scotland Winter Intenders Profile
- Reflecting their higher levels of confidence in the ability to take trips, pre-nesters are likely to be the largest audience for Scotland winter trips, indexing higher than their representation in the general population.
- 10% of Scotland winter intenders are retirees, significantly lower than their incidence in the general population, and further reflecting the growing caution among this life stage.
- Nearly half of Scotland Winter Intenders are made up of the ‘life goes on’ and ‘less to lose’ segment, significantly higher than these segments’ incidence within the population, indicating the influence of attitude to risk in driving intention to travel.
- Scotland winter intenders are significantly more likely than the U.K. population to self-classify as either ‘better off’ financially than before the pandemic or that they’ve ‘not been affected’ suggesting that intention to take a trip is driven by financial security as well as attitude to risk.
- The combined influence of financial concerns and worries about catching COVID-19 are evidenced by the conditions intenders would like to have in place before a visit – staff wearing masks, enhanced cleaning regimes and free cancellation all stated by around two thirds of intenders.
Scotland Spring intenders – Profiling and Trip Behaviour
- Higher confidence in Spring trips going ahead means that the profile of intenders is very different to the winter. The 20% of Spring intenders are more likely to be retirees, to belong to risk-averse segments, and to require enhanced safety measures on their trip. Although this audience is likely to have strong pent-up demand, confidence remains low (albeit higher than earlier time periods) and only a small proportion have actually started planning or booking their trip. Pre-nesters are less likely to be considering Scotland in the Spring.
- Spring intenders are also more likely to be visiting with their nuclear family (partners and children as opposed to other family members).
- Coastal destinations grow in popularity in the Spring – likely driven by improvements in the weather – and the differing make-up of visitors (retirees opting for rural over urban destinations). The Highlands is particularly popular – 2 in 5 anticipating a trip there, compared to 3 in 10 in the winter. Commercial self-catering is the number one accommodation type.
Trips taken since September
- 17% of U.K. residents took an overnight trip between September and November, 14% of Scotland residents. Both percentages are significantly lower than anticipated trips in this time period (based on research conducted in August). The drop in trips taken is driven predominantly by the October to November time period when regional and national restrictions made travel more difficult – in September U.K. residents took the same proportion of trips as they intended to do so (at 11% across the U.K.)
- At 10%, trips to Scotland were lower than the anticipated 14%, a pattern that is also evident in Wales and Yorkshire. Each of these parts of the U.K. have endured relatively stricter or more varied restrictions than other parts of the U.K. which may account for the drop-off.
- The drop-off in trips taken against intentions has occurred amongst all life stages, but is particularly strong amongst retirees, 16% taking a trip compared to 20% that intended to do so.
- Scotland trip-takers are significantly more likely than intenders to classify as better off financially that before the pandemic (18% compared to 11%). This suggests that in addition to travel restrictions, financial concerns may have also had an impact on the drop-off in trips taken
- When it comes to attitudinal segments, Scotland trip-takers fall broadly in line with the U.K. ‘Less to Lose’ make up a slightly higher proportion of visitors in the September to November period.
- City or large town’ and ‘countryside or village’ were the two most popular types of destination for an overnight stay taken between September- November, broadly in line with intentions. Mountains or hills, rural coastline and traditional coastal/seaside towns each attracted significantly fewer visitors.
- Although visits to cities or large towns are consistent with intentions, trips to Edinburgh were significantly lower than intended.
- Hotel/motel/inn was the most popular choice for an overnight Scotland trip, followed by private home and commercial self-catering. Private home was the only accommodation type consistent with intentions, drops in other types driven by shifts in destination choice (e.g. fewer Edinburgh trips than intended correlating with fewer ‘hotel/motel/inn’ stays) and destination type (e.g. a fall in coastal trips correlating with a drop caravan/camping stays).
COVID-19 Consumer Tracking Report - Scotland level monthly summary
Published December 2020
12 October - 6 December Scotland results
The latest Scotland report looks at survey results for 31 August to 2October 2020. Compared to the previous results of mid July to mid August 2020, the highlights are:
Mood of the Nation
- As outlined in the UK level report last week, as at early October, the majority of the U.K. public think that the ‘worst is yet to come’ in relation to COVID-19, a sentiment that grew significantly in Mid-September. Scotland residents are marginally more likely to think the worst is yet to come.
- Increasing public pessimism is supported by a significant drop in confidence in the ability to take a U.K. holiday or short break in the next few months. A consistent 1 in 4 of U.K. and Scotland residents feel very or fairly confident a trip would go ahead between October to December, significantly lower than the 1 in 2 who were confident back in August.
- This drop in confidence is driven by ‘government restrictions’, which is now the number one reason for low confidence, compared to the fourth most popular reason in August. Scotland residents are more likely to cite ‘government restrictions’ than residents from the wider U.K. The second most likely reason is ‘concerns around catching Covid-19’.
- The tangible impact of concerns around catching COVID-19 is evidenced by the 58% of U.K. residents stating that they would not visit a ‘previously locked down’ destination until at least 2 months after restrictions are lifted.
Scotland Visitor Intentions for November to March
- Scotland is the U.K. destination of choice for 13% of the 1 in 4 Britons (19% of Scotland residents) planning a trip between November and March. Amongst Scotland residents planning a trip in this period, Scotland is the destination of choice for 50%.
- Based on intentions alone, Scotland residents would make up around 2 in 5 overnight trip-takers to Scotland in this period – with residents from London, the North East, Wales and the South East all indexing high with intentions.
- However, the research on ‘trips-taken’ to date (below) demonstrates that during the pandemic, the proportion of trip-takers from Scotland tend to make up the majority of visitors, with many ‘England and Wales-based’ intenders not following through with their intention to visit Scotland. Given the increase in restrictions around travel, this trend is likely to continue.
- Also, only 22% of these trip intenders have started planning their trip, with just 15% having booked it reinforcing low confidence levels.
- Booking directly with the provider is the most common channel, followed by an online travel agent (OTA). However there are differences by life stage – families are more likely to favour traditional travel agents, whereas pre-nesters index higher in booking with homestay websites.
- Pre-nesters and families are likely to be the largest audience for Scotland winter trips, both indexing higher than their representation in the general population. The high incidence of pre-nesters is driven by 25-34 year olds (as opposed to 16-24 year olds). Retirees, although indexing highly for trips in September, continue to be the smallest audience in line with their confidence levels.
- Scotland winter intenders favour ‘short breaks’ as well as ‘trips to the countryside or a village’ followed by ‘city or large town’ although Scotland residents who intend to take a trip tend to favour the coast.
- The Highlands remains the most favoured destination for winter intenders living within and outside Scotland – although reporting for July-Sept trips also demonstrates that the proportion who eventually end up going there is lower than intended. This may be driven by availability/cost of accommodation, although equally could be a result of the high ‘saliency’ of the Highlands as a destination. The Edinburgh area continues to be the second most popular area overall preferred more amongst intenders from outside of Scotland than amongst Scotland residents.
- ‘Hotel/Motel/Inn’ is the number one choice for accommodation for winter intenders. Other accommodation options are also consistent with August projections with the exception of ‘commercial self-catering’ which has a lower incidence of intention. However, ‘commercial self-catering’ has increased in preference through September and October, as concerns around COVID-19 have also risen. With that in mind, the incidence of this type of ‘self-contained’ accommodation may be higher when bookings are actually made.
- October half term day trips are also victim to falling confidence levels - although 13% of Scotland residents intend to take one (30% of Scotland’s families), they anticipate taking fewer day-trips than normal.
Trips taken between July-September
- As of early October, 30% of U.K. residents had taken an overnight short break or holiday in the U.K. since July, 24% of Scotland residents. 3 in 5 U.K. trips were for a holiday, the majority of the remainder to visit friends or relatives (VFR). Overnight stays in Scotland were predominantly for a ‘holiday’ – 77% compared to 63% of all U.K. trips.
- The South West of England attracted the highest proportion of holiday trips from July to September (18%), followed by the North West of England (15% of holiday trips) and Scotland (10% of all trips, 12% of holiday trips).
- Nearly 8 in 10 (77%) of all Scotland residents that have taken an overnight trip since July did so in Scotland, rising to 86% of Scotland residents that took a holiday. Both figures represent a significant rise on intentions, perhaps reflecting the success of the VisitScotland’s ‘Only in Scotland’ campaign.
- Conversely, only 4% of trip intenders from outside of Scotland visited Scotland on their trip, lower than the 10% that intended to do so. As a consequence, Scotland residents made up 60% of all overnight trip takers during this period.
- Notably, the life stage with the highest representation for Scotland holidays from July to September was ‘pre-nesters’ (in particular 25-34 year olds) indexing significantly higher than amongst the wider U.K. population. This will in part be driven by the higher incidence of pre-nesters in the Scotland population than the wider U.K. population – Scotland residents dominating the visitor profile. It’s worth noting that retirees were the largest age group for trips taken in September, highlighting there is still scope to generate some visits from this audience.
- ‘City or large town’ and ‘countryside or village’ were the two most popular types of destination for an overnight stay between July and September, followed by mountains or hills and traditional coastal/seaside towns.
- The Highlands, the Glasgow area, Edinburgh area and the West Coast were the three most popular areas. Of the 35% that stated they visited a ‘city or large town’, two thirds visited the Edinburgh and Glasgow areas.
- The vast majority of Scotland trip-takers were able to stay in the destination they had originally planned. Of the 11% that didn’t, worries about ‘they’d be too many people there’ was the main reason, followed by the expense of accommodation options. Notably, 1 in 5 (2% of all trip-takers) weren’t confident the venue was Covid safe.
- Hotel/motel/inn was the most popular choice for an overnight Scotland holiday, followed by caravan/camping and commercial self-catering. Unsurprisingly, private home indexed higher for all trips than holiday trips, driven by trips with a VFR purpose.
COVID-19 Consumer Tracking Report - Scotland level monthly summary
Published October 2020
31 August - 02 October Scotland results
The latest Scotland report looks at survey results for 10 July to 14 August 2020. Compared to the previous results of mid June to mid July 2020, the highlights are:
Trips taken in July and August
- As at mid August, 16% of UK residents had taken an overnight short break or holiday in the UK, 17% of Scotland residents.
- 11% of UK residents that took a domestic holiday took their holiday in Scotland. 66% of Scotland holiday-takers live in Scotland, 34% outside Scotland.
- Four in five (78%) of Scotland residents that took a UK holiday or short break, took it in Scotland.
- Conversely, only 3% of trip intenders from outside of Scotland visited Scotland on their trip, lower than the 8% that intended to do so.
- ‘Countryside or village’ was the most popular destination type for Scotland holiday-makers. Stays in ‘mountains or hills’ were significantly lower than predicted (15% compared to 40%), as were stays in the Highlands (which remain the number one choice). This drop may be driven by availability of accommodation.
- Caravan/camping was the number one choice of accommodation for Scotland holiday stays in July and August. Hotel/motel/inn was the next most popular choice for a holiday stay, followed by private home and commercial self-catering. Both ‘a private home’ and ‘commercial self-catering’ indexed lower than intentions, commercial self-catering especially so. The drop-off in commercial self-catering against intentions could be driven by destination choice or limited availability in the event of high demand.
General sentiment in the UK short break and holiday market and intentions for Autumn / Winter
- At the time of the survey (mid-July to mid-August), Scotland residents feel more comfortable conducting ‘everyday activities’ than in mid-June to mid-July. There has been a rise in comfort towards all activities in particular with ‘eating at a restaurant’ (rising from 29% comfortable to 44%).
- Despite growing comfort overall, confidence in the ability to take UK short breaks or holidays in September has not increased and confidence in taking trips from October onwards has declined. This increasing pessimism towards winter trips may be a reflection of ‘flattening’ optimism or may be driven by fears of a second wave of COVID-19 as local lockdowns increase in number – indeed, ‘concerns about catching COVID-19’ is the dominant reason for lack of confidence in taking a trip.
- Despite caution towards taking a domestic trip, around one in five UK residents plan on taking an overnight short break or holiday this autumn (September to October) and one in four this winter.
- Notably, a large proportion of Scotland autumn and winter intenders have not yet booked their trip, higher amongst non-Scotland residents.
- Scotland is the number two destination for a holiday or short break in both the autumn and the winter months, and by far the number one destination for Scotland residents.
- There is a significantly different profile in Scotland intenders in September compared to other periods. Families have relatively low representation, whilst older independents and retirees have the highest representation.
Trip behaviour and booking
- Consistent with previous reporting, the Highlands remains by far the most favoured destination for autumn intenders living within and outside Scotland. The Edinburgh area continues to be the second most popular area.
- Scotland autumn intenders are most likely to visit ‘countryside or a village’ on their trips, followed by ‘city or large town’ and ‘mountains or hills’. Scotland residents broadly share the same preferences as Scotland intenders from elsewhere in the UK, although are less likely to stay in a city or large town.
- ‘Hotel / motel / inn’ is the number one choice for accommodation amongst both autumn and winter intenders, followed by ‘commercial self-catering’ and ‘a private home’. Autumn intenders are most likely to book their accommodation in Scotland directly with the provider reflecting the older demographic which favours this channel.
- Across both autumn and winter trips, ‘own car’ is by far the leading mode of transport followed by train and plane. Scotland resident intenders are significantly more likely to use their own car, and in the autumn months less likely to use train or plane, the former likely a reflection of lower intention to visit Scotland’s cities or large towns.
COVID-19 Consumer Tracking Report - Scotland level monthly summary
Published September 2020
Mid July - mid August (week 9 - 13) Scotland results
The latest Scotland report looks at survey results for 15 June to 10 July 2020. Compared to the previous results of mid May to mid-June 2020, the highlights are:
- In line with general confidence measures, 24% of UK residents and 20% of Scotland residents now intend to take a UK short break or holiday this summer, a significant rise on the research conducted in mid-May to mid-June.
- Scotland residents are less confident and more cautious than UK residents on the whole, particularly in relation to indoor activities such as going to a restaurant. They are more likely to cite government restrictions and reasons relating to restrictions (e.g. fewer things to do) as the main reason for this. Scots may be more cautious as some Scottish restrictions have been lifted later than for England.
- Amongst UK residents planning a domestic holiday this summer, Scotland remains the number two destination, behind the South West of England. The vast majority of Scotland residents considering Scotland are not thinking of going elsewhere.
- Outside of Scotland, residents of London show the highest propensity to visit Scotland for a short break or holiday this summer, notable given the population density.
- Scotland intenders are planning to take a trip in Scotland for a range of holiday types, but ‘countryside or village’ and ‘mountains or hills’ are the continue to be the top two destination types, both increasing significantly in preference since mid-May to mid-June. Families favour seaside destinations, retirees rural destinations.
- Hotel / motel / inn’, ‘commercial self-catering’ and ‘caravan/camping’ generate near-equal levels of visits to Scotland this summer, followed by ‘a private home’. The preference for ‘commercial self-catering’ has increased significantly since mid-May to mid-June, reflecting restrictions on ‘self-catering’ accommodation being lifted earlier than other holiday accommodation.
- ‘Own car’ is the preferred travel mode for a trip to Scotland, although ‘train’ and ‘plane’ is the mode of choice for around 1 in 10, driven by those living outside of Scotland.
COVID-19 Consumer Tracking Report - Scotland level monthly summary
Published July 2020
Mid June - Mid July (week 5-8) Scotland results for 15 June - 10 July
This report for Scotland looks at survey results for the period 18 May to 12 June 2020. The commentary below refers to this time frame.
- 21% of U.K. residents are likely to go on a summer U.K. break this year, compared to 17% of Scotland residents. Notably Scotland and Wales residents are the least likely to be intending to go on a summer trip this year.
- Amongst U.K. residents planning a domestic holiday this summer Scotland is the number two destination, behind the South West of England. Amongst Scotland residents, Scotland is the number one destination followed by the South West of England.
- C1C2 families and AB families index the most heavily above the population average for summer trips to Scotland. AB pre-nesters also index higher, as do older independent ABs (despite older independents indexing lower overall).
- For Scotland summer intenders from the U.K., the Highlands and Edinburgh are the two most popular areas. For Scotland residents, the Highlands is also the most popular, although significantly more so than amongst the wider U.K. public. Scotland residents are less likely to take a holiday in Edinburgh and Glasgow, and more likely to do so on the West coast of Scotland.
- Scotland intenders are planning to come to Scotland for a range of holiday types, but ‘rural coastline’, ‘countryside or village’ and ‘mountains or hills’ are the top three destination types. Families favour seaside and rural destinations, whereas pre-nesters index higher in cities and towns.
- Hotel/motel/inn’ and ‘caravan/camping’ generate near-equal levels of visits to Scotland this summer, followed by ‘commercial self-catering’ and ‘a private home’.
- Both summer and winter Scotland intenders are more likely to book their trip directly with an accommodation provider than any other single booking channel, although when combined together ‘third-party channels’ make up a higher proportion of bookings than direct bookings alone.
COVID-19 Consumer Tracking Report - Scotland level monthly summary
Published July 2020
Mid May - Mid June (week 1 - 4 ) Scotland results for 18 May - 12 June
Latest insights
Keep-up-to-date by reading our most recent insights report on tourism in Scotland.
Find out moreThe visitor experience in Scotland 2021
In addition to measuring UK and Scot residents holiday behaviours, we have also undertaken research with VisitScotland customers who took a holiday or short break in Scotland since the re-opening of tourism on 26 April 2021.
The aim of this research is to provide consumer insights to enable VisitScotland to continue to support the recovery of the tourism industry and focus on sustainable growth that will enhance the positive benefits of tourism for all.
The research was conducted via an online survey with VisitScotland UK and Ireland customers to explore their travel decision making and behaviours and future holiday intentions.
This audience received marketing communications from VisitScotland, used the VisitScotland.com website or engaged with VisitScotland via another channel. Many are loyal and repeat visitors to Scotland. It is therefore not representative of all those who may have taken holidays or short breaks in Scotland in 2021.
Fieldwork was carried out between 27 January and 21 February 2022 and 2,534 online interviews were conducted. Independent research agency Progressive Partnership Ltd conducted the fieldwork and data analysis.
Summary | The Scotland visitor experience in 2021
Published June 2022
Online research with VisitScotland UK and Ireland customers
Full report | The Scotland visitor experience in 2021
Published June 2022
Online research with VisitScotland UK and Ireland customers
For further information on the research featured on this page please email [email protected].