Scenario Planning

What if the Oil Runs Out?

The latest Bank of England Inflation report states that 50% of Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) in the western world is now attributed to rising energy prices. With Tony Blair stating that Nuclear Power is a serious option – energy and oil are a very topical issue. So what does all this mean for Scottish tourism?

Over the next ten years, Scottish tourism is expected to grow by 50%, one of the keys to the future is transport – a sector that is dependent on oil.  In the latest issue of Tomorrows World, Consumer & Tourist from the scenario planning team at VisitScotland, oil and energy are examined within the context of Scottish tourism.

• Consideration is given to the key variables such as oil forecasts, security of supply, cost of supply, world demand and alternative forms of energy
• Alternatively, high oil prices could be a good thing, as innovation in new technologies can only be sustained if the economics are right.
• Two scenario have being constructed called Energy Inflation and Paying for Climate Change in order to show how different variables may unfold
• The Energy Inflation scenario presumes mass belief in the plenitude of available oil reserves, limited intervention of supply and failure to respond quickly enough to alter demand, triggers a sudden and prolonged period of economic shocks, political instability and environmental disasters. The low priced oil economy has ended.
• The Paying for Climate Change scenario assumes rising energy prices, combined with conservation measures such as carbon taxes.
• Using computable general equilibrium modelling, an economic assessment is made.

Both scenarios raise a number of policy issues for the future including oil and fossil fuels being the main sources of energy as there is no real alternative. Renewables and nuclear power will continue to grow and countries will try to reduce further their reliance on oil.  The purpose of the paper is to create a debate rather than providing a definite answer.

To download the latest edition of Tomorrows World, Consumer & Tourist, visit:         What if the Oil Runs Out? (PDF 2131kb)

Further Information

For further details about Scenario Planning at VisitScotland, please contact:

Dr. Ian Yeoman, VisitScotland’s Scenario Planner by email at:
ian.yeoman@visitscotland.com, or tel: 00 44 (0) 131 472 2388.

Alternatively visit www.visitscotland.org/scenarios