Viewpoint - May 2006
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A regular feature, inviting key individuals to comment on an aspect of scenario planning. This month Dr Ian Yeoman from VisitScotland discusses Trends that will shape the future of Scottish Tourism.
The Gleneagles Space Station: Trends That Will Shape the Future of Scottish Tourism In 2015 the Gleneagles Lunar Space Station could be the world’s most exclusive Resort. Catching the Virgin Galactic from Auchterarder, space tourists will fasten their seat belt, hear the rockets roar and feel a sudden power acceleration of 4G. As the spaceship reaches the stratosphere tourists will gaze down on the Planet Earth for the most exclusive view in the world. During their stay at the Gleneagles Space Station tourists will take in a round of golf, take the lunar buggy out for a spin and float around the leisure complex. They’ll enjoy the best of Scottish cuisine – vacuum packed.
It
is Scotland’s ambition to increase the value of Scottish tourism by 50% by 2015. In order to do that
we need to know who the future tourist will be, and what they will do. In a world that is constantly
changing, customer expectation is evolving and more countries aim to tap into their tourism potential.
It is very important for Scottish tourism to be innovative, whilst drawing upon its spectacular scenery
and cultural assets. According to the UN World Tourism Organisation the traditional sun-and-sea ‘summer
holiday’, which for many years characterised international tourism, is changing. Today, destinations
must offer a range of diverse experience and activities to the more sophisticated traveller. Some of
the key trends that will shape the future include: As consumer prosperity and confidence rises, the experience economy will mature,
as consumers seek new meanings through ‘self actualisation’. This is a search for a deeper meaning and
a sense of worth beyond material possessions. This is what we call authenticity,
in which purchasing decisions are based upon real perceived value. Something that is real, honest, simple,
rooted, human, beautiful and ethical. This is the basis of sustainable tourism. The creation of new dynamic traveller groups as a result of the changing make-up
of the nuclear family. The nuclear family, which once comprised parents, children,
grandparents and ‘horizontal’ relatives such as cousins, aunts and uncles, is being replaced by the
‘vertical family’, characterised by up to five co-existing generations, stretching from great-grandparents
to children. Other emerging markets are the 3rd Age traveller, based
upon men and women who retire at 65 and can expect to live for 12 years after retirement, being healthy
and active for at least 7 years, or the number of people looking to travel solo, particularity due to
an increasing proportion of society that never marry, fuelling a demand for ‘single’ travel products. As the world becomes more educated, this will fuel our hunger for cultural
short breaks. But culture will no longer be divided into high or low brow – it will be no
brow culture. Visitors will take in a Rolling Stones Heritage Rock Concert (Mick Jagger will still be
pulling in the crowds at 86) and go on to listen to Gordon Brown’s memoirs at the Edinburgh International
Book Festival. As society gets richer, luxury is about time rather than money.
People will want to spend more time with partners, child or pursuing a passion. Technology will play a greater part in 2015. Future tourists
using the latest satellite navigation systems will never get lost. James Bond-style interpretation glasses
mean stories and adventures can be created in front of us without the need for guides. Golfers will
be able to practise the Old Course on their 9th generation PlayStation before
they play the real thing. However, the future consumer will be more anxious, perhaps concerned
for personal safety, or conscious about their mode of travel and its impact on the environment. Whatever the future, one thing is guaranteed; Scottish tourism is one of those industries that will always be here. It has outlasted shipbuilding and will be here when the oil runs out. The only thing that is uncertain is the exact future for Scotland’s tourism industry: only time will tell. Dr Ian Yeoman Dr Ian Yeoman is a Crystal Ball Gazer (or Scenario Planner) at VisitScotland Previous Viewpoint Articles |
