This is an economic and forecasting model that paints a picture of the present, produces forecasts of the future and measures the economic impact of shocks and surprises on the tourism sectors. The Moffat model is named after Jamie Moffat, and was made possible through grants from the Moffat Charitable Trust, The Moffat Centre at Glasgow Caledonian University and VisitScotland.

In 2004, the Christal DeHaan Travel & Tourism Research Institute at Nottingham University was commissioned to develop the Moffat model. The Moffat model has three parts, namely: indicators, explaining the present; forecasting, explaining the near future; and scenario analysis, explaining change and impact.

Indicators
The indicators ‘paint’ a picture of the season to date and the near future, through observing a number of quantitative indicators or measurements, and include:

• Business Tourism trips and spend
• USA trips and spend
• Tourism employment
• Visits to Visitor Attractions

These indicators are underpinned by a number of drivers, such as:

• Consumer confidence,
• Exchange rates
• Tourism price inflation

In total, there are 40 indicators and drivers that will paint a picture of tourism to date. These indicators will be published biannually, starting in 2006.

Forecasting
Econometric forecasting can forecast the future based upon the changes in economic variables that are drivers of tourism. The econometric model uses predictable elements from a time series of international and domestic tourism statistics, and accounts for seasonal changes or the intervention of one-off events.

The model finds a correlation between the tourism time series with exchange rates, GDP and inflation, then makes a forecast into the future based upon those economic variables that are published biannually by OECD.

The model forecasts domestic demand and the main international markets for Scotland, giving forecasting for trips and spending for those markets. The forecasts can be used to generate scenarios, based upon changes in exchange rates, GDP and inflation, hence providing a useful tool based upon changes in economic conditions.

Scenario Analysis
The scenario analysis element of the model uses the principles of computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling of the Scottish economy. CGE models are a well-established methodology for measuring changes or shocks in the economy and how they impact upon tourism.

For example, the model allows for events such as SARS, changes in value added (sales) tax or air passenger duty/tax, as well as a range of optimistic and pessimistic scenarios relating to the future of the Scottish economy.

The model provides macroeconomic impacts of alternative scenarios on income, employment, welfare, the balance of trade and government revenue, as well as 82 economic sectors, including tourism related sectors of large hotels, small hotels, bed and breakfast establishments and retail distribution, etc. It can take account of different types of tourism expenditure – by domestic tourists, tourists from the rest of the UK, international tourists and day-trippers.

For a detailed understanding of the Moffat Model, readers can download the following research paper

The Moffat Model (PDF 312Kb)