The Bigger Picture

Statistical analysis:

Of the eight countries, Scotland is the second most expensive in which to live and be a tourist. Furthermore, the cost of living and, therefore, the leisure spending expectations, are lower in all of Scotland's main target markets, except Japan and the Scandinavian countries.

As a destination for out-of-state trips, Scotland performs very well for its size. It attracts more visitors per sqkm than any of the other countries. A similar measure based on the size of the resident population (ie. visits per head) also shows a good performance (3rd out of 8).

Scotland does not perform as well as a holiday destination for its own resident population. It accommodated an average of one domestic tourism trip per head of population in 1999, well below New Zealand, Ireland and British Columbia. This may be a function of the remoteness, insularity or size of these three comparators but the general lesson is that Scotland is not doing particularly well in retaining its own holidaying population, given the range of short breaks that are available every year.

During the 1990s, the number of trips from out-of-state to Scotland increased by 15.5% and trips by Scotland-based tourists retained in Scotland increased by 68%. These are good growth rates, especially as both figures have been in decline since 1997. Nevertheless, from the data available for other countries, the growth rates are far from spectacular (eg. Ireland 75% and 103%).

Some other countries have experienced fluctuations as well. Examples have been given of how visitor numbers from certain markets have gone down in New Zealand and Canada and how these have been attributed, to some extent, to economic problems in the source market areas and exchange rate fluctuations.

An analysis of the relative value of tourist expenditure in each country (for which data exist) indicates that Scotland lags behind British Columbia, Ireland and New Zealand. This might suggest that Scotland is attracting fewer high spending tourists than the others.

One of the main lessons from this analysis is the phenomenal success of Ireland, which is Scotland's nearest competitor. The levels of growth experienced in other countries may be due to the stage they are at in the development of their tourism (eg. Costa Rica, New Zealand and South Africa) but Ireland is clearly the closest model, in terms of the nature and maturity of its product. In contrast, Norway''s performance suggests that it cannot be regarded as a particularly good comparator for Scotland.